NRL Betting: Back Brisbane Broncos to overcome 4pt handicap to beat New Zealand Warriors

Recommended bet: Broncos -4 on Handicap to win @ 10/11 (1.91) with TitanBet

A NZ Warriors team that’s performed well below pre-season expectations look to turn their campaign around as they play host to Brisbane Broncos in round 13 of the NRL Telstra Premiership this weekend.

Jonathan Wright, Matt Allwood, Jazz Tevaga, John Palavi and James Gavet have all been dropped by Warriors’ coach Andrew McFadden following their 38-12 drubbing at the hands of Canberra Raiders last time out, after which the team held a crisis meeting.  They are boosted by returning winger Manu Vatuvei after injury and Solomone Kata after suspension.

As for Broncos, arguably a bigger factor than the opposition for them could be fatigue, particularly for those who were playing in the State of Origin series earlier in the week for Queensland Maroons against New South Wales Blues.

Broncos have gone down to identical narrow 19-18 defeats in their last two games at North Queensland Cowboys and, in a major upset, at home to Wests Tigers, leaving them 3rd in the table.

They have Corey Parker, Josh McGuire, Sam Thaiday and Darius Boyd back after playing for Queensland on Wednesday, all of whom were absent for Broncos in last week’s defeat.  Matt Gillett and Corey Oates were also on Origin duty, but have been left out of the squad.  Travis Waddell replaces the injured Andrew McCullough at hooker.  Greg Eden and Jaydn Su’a are also out.

In terms of stats, only Wests Tigers and the hapless Newcastle Knights have conceded more points than Warriors this season.  For their part, the Broncos have scored more points than anyone in the NRL this season to date and have the second best defence behind Melbourne Storm.  Broncos won the reverse early season fixture 25-10 back in March, but have won only once on their last five trips to the Mt Smart Stadium in Auckland.

Even so, current season form heavily favours the Broncos and even taking the busy schedule of key members of their squad into consideration, they possess more than enough attacking threat to justify backing them for victory against a porous Warriors defence.  

Rather than taking Broncos for the win at around 4/7, they can be backed to overcome a 4-point Handicap. Taking them on any bigger Handicap looks risky under the circumstances.